PENN YAN—Polling by Change Research released today shows that Tracy Mitrano has closed the gap with her opponent to just two percentage points, with Congressman Reed now leading 49-47. Change Research was the only pollster to accurately predict Andrew Gillum’s win in the Florida gubernatorial primary. Last night, FiveThirtyEight, a nationally renowned statistical analysis platform, changed their rating for the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” in its lite forecast.
Asked who participants would vote for if the election were held today, 44.5 percent said Reed, 42.7 percent said Mitrano, and 12.9 percent said they were undecided.
Asked how favorable their feelings were for Congressman Reed, 12 percent said “Very favorable” and 20.3 percent “Somewhat favorable,” while 9.5 percent replied “Somewhat unfavorable” and 35.3 percent “Very unfavorable.” Demonstrating that being supportive of President Trump does not necessarily mean support for Reed, 35.7 percent of respondents said they were “Very favorable” toward Trump.
Participants were also asked how they would say things were going in the area. In response, 59.4 percent of participants said things were on the “Wrong track,” while 26 percent said they were on the “Right track.”
The poll included 510 participants, was conducted online, and has a margin of error of +/–4. Additionally, 38.5 percent of respondents identified as Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and 22.5 percent as Independent.
In response to the poll results, Mitrano said, “Voters see where this district is headed under Congressman Reed’s leadership and they don’t like it. They sent him to Washington to address the challenges we’re facing head on, but instead they have watched him sell out to his corporate donors and special interests. People want affordable healthcare, job opportunities, and good and affordable education for the children–they don’t want excuses. The results of this poll show this district is ready for new leadership that will focus on putting the people of NY-23 first.”